News, Platforms, PS4

Morpheus a “Really Bad Idea for Sony,” but PS4 Will Be a “Wild Success” According to Michael Pachter

by on March 24, 2014 6:55 PM 119

Today we had the chance to have a long and very interesting conversation with Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter, and we heard his opinion about quite a few topics. Of course we couldn’t avoid asking about Sony’s Project Morpheus, and our crystal ball holder extraordinaire seemed not to be very enthusiastic about the commercial value of the idea.

I think it’s a bad idea for multiple participants to chase it, and I think it’s a really bad idea for Sony. I have no problem with the Oculus Rift, that they’re trying it, because they’re a startup and that’s a very small market and if they dominate it that’s great, but if it’s a small market and there are multiple players, it’s gonna be hard for anybody to make money.

And I don’t think it’s gonna be a big market. It sounds interesting, but I don’t think there will be enough content to justify making the capital investment to create the headset. I think it’s chicken and egg. If there’s no content you’re not gonna buy a virtual reality headset, and if you don’t buy a virtual reality headset, there won’t be any content, because no one will make a dedicated game for a very small audience.

The Oculus Rift guys are making some games themselves, and they hired some pretty impressive people. Sony certainly is capable of doing the same, and if you wanna think about Sony’s success here, remember all the big 3D games and how those did. Nobody cares. So I think it’s just a super super small market.

Pachter continued by explaining that gamers have demonstrated not to be very interested in peripherals with the exception of Kinect, so they’re probably not going to buy Morpheus en masse:

I think the Oculus guys are gonna be very happy with a million sales. If they get a million sales, they’re gonna get a ton of money. A million sales is a huge success for Oculus Rift. It’s just a hiccup for Sony.

I think people believe that Sony validated the concept by offering something of their own. The Oculus Rift guys, I don’t think they’re looking to sell ten million units. I think that if they sell a million they’ll create some more content, and then the next iteration sells two, the next iteration sells four… I think they have a very patient, long-term plan. A million of this for Sony… they’re better off spending that money on marketing for PS4.

We also asked him about Sony’s profitability in general, and while he was very honest in admitting that he doesn’t know much about Sony’s non-gaming businesses, he believes the PS4 will be extremely successful:

I don’t know a lot about Sony’s other businesses so I couldn’t tell you how their TV division is doing or their movie division, I think that PlayStation is going to be a wild success, and I think the PlayStation division is gonna be very profitable, buy they might lose all that money with TV shows.

It’s like talking about theme parks profits in the context of Dysney. If the Marvel movies don’t work, or if Star Wars doesn’t work, Dysney isn’t going to be as profitable if the theme park business improves by ten percent. I can’t comment on all of Sony’s businesses, because I really jsut don’t know.

While Pachter definitely isn’t a believer, it’ll be interesting to see if the “wild success” of the PS4 will manage to pull gamers in with Morpheus. Hopefully it will, as the concept is definitely interesting, but lack of success from such a big player as Sony could probably put virtual reality as a mass market back into the pipe dreams closet. As usual, we’ll have to wait and see what will happen in the next couple years.

Join the Discussion

  • oGMo

    Yeah think of all those peripherals no one bought like the DualShock or the EyeToy or … wait, actually they did! PS Move is probably the least successful, and even then it sold 15 million.

    That said, this is clearly going to be an “expensive” add-on and I doubt they expect tens of millions of sales, but it could definitely be leading into the next generation.

  • Bankai

    The fact that he believes only the Kinect has garnered mainstream interest shows how out of touch he is with the industry. And like 99% of his other “predictions,” I expect this one – regarding Project Morpheus, not the PS4 – to blow up in his face.

    • jeremyg85

      Here is to hoping sony makes it that far, after losing money for the last 8 years they sure need some type of success somewhere..

      • Bankai

        5 years, not 8 and they offset those loses with the profits from Sony Pictures. And you obviously live in a fantasy world because Sony’s TV’s, Phones, Tablets, Camera’s and movies are successful.

        Troll a little harder next time, kiddo.

        • jeremyg85

          Sony sold of its oled tv factory, and will likely sell off its remaining assets soon. They sold of their Vaio line too. They sold off Ericson as well. Successful by what metric? They are hemorrhaging money, financially with the exception to their movie studios those lines are all failing miserably. If they were all doing well and PlayStation was too how would they be losing so much money? 5 bullets to the chest, not 8.. nice defence there.. They made money one year because of the sales I had talked about, their TV tech and factory. The reality of it is they are worth 10% of what they were in 2001 and are losing money fast.. the ship is sinking, maybe next time you should fabricate a little better, son.

          • Bankai

            The only fact here is that you’re bad at trolling because a good troll actually presents some facts. Good luck in continued attempts at trolling, my sad little friend, you need it.

          • jeremyg85

            lol, and he gives up even trying to defend his dying company.. Everything I just said was factual. You are just too ez son.

          • 3rdworldgamer

            why are you so obsessed about Sony’s finances anyways?

          • shinitaru

            because he can’t say anything about the games. Haven’t you noticed how crazy all the trolling has gotten ever since Titanfall failed to be “God’s gift to gamers”? Now Infamous SS has them positively foaming at the mouth

          • 3rdworldgamer

            i just want him to admit he hates Sony and explain why.

          • shinitaru

            You’d never get a strait answer. I can probably already guess that he would say that he doesn’t hate Sony

          • DarthDiggler

            @jeremyg85:disqus

            Not true and I have already demonstrated that with some links.

            Back up your wild claims and tone down your adjectives bro.

          • JustGaming

            You were right to start ignoring him, I just read his post history….. EZ? Bro?? Son??? No idea who he thinks he is, but he seems to be the epitome of a dudebro XBox worshiping circle jerker to me.

          • PCS4-Box U

            Hit the nail on the head.

          • PCS4-Box U

            Total troll dude, just ignore.

          • Michael Norris

            Sony hasn’t made money on there Pc’s since 03.Sony needed to overhaul the whole company.Kaz has done just that,i fully expect Sony to be back in the plus.You are trolling quite hard though.

          • JustGaming

            His whole post history is trying (trolling) too hard.

          • riley81

            Sold off Ericsson? Are you kidding me? When did Sony own Ericsson? It was a partnership for mobile devices.

            Let me explain it like I would a 2 year old. There’s 2 companies named Sony and Ericsson. Sony and Ericsson decide they want to work together to make mobile phones, so they form a company named Sony Ericsson. Sony own’s half and Ericsson owns half. Many years pass and “Ericsson” is not doing a good job so Sony decides to take over the company in full. Sony pay’s Ericsson for the other part of the company and now own’s the mobile phone company in full and changed the name to “Sony” from “Sony Ericsson”.

            Sold off Ericsson? Hahahaha!

            Of course they sold off the Vaio line. Non profitable.

            They’re spinning off the TV business into a “Wholly owned subsidiary”. Read again – Wholly Owned Subsidiary”.

            Yes Sony is in financial trouble but…… the steps above are required for a return to profitability. Get rid of non performing assets. Don’t forget SCE is profitable, Sony’s insurance business is profitable, the movie business is average, Sony’s TV channels are big in Asia.

          • DarthDiggler

            @jeremyg85:disqus

            Look man start providing evidence to your claims. Link some articles that show a third party source from an author with experience and a reputation.

            Considering your comments it is pretty obvious you are a devote Xbox fan (or perhaps PC guy) who has an ax to grind against Sony and specifically PlayStation.

            I am not suggesting that Sony is in clear waters, but the changes they have made have been to reinforce the profitable sectors of their business and to insulate them from the looses of poorly performing divisions.

            The funny thing is had Microsoft taken similar measures the Xbox Division would have been sold off because it has not been a profit center for MS like Windows and Office have.

            So why don’t you put that in your pipe and smoke it.

      • oGMo

        Yeah with all that worldwide PS3 outselling the 360, continuously delivering games, having the most successful console launch in the history of video games, they sure need help… keeping it up. Because they need to keep it up.

        • jeremyg85

          You are right, oh boy.. thanks for pointing that out, I almost missed it.. they lose money on every console sold, at a time when they need money more than ever. Too bad they don’t have any good games like xbox one, the xbox attach rate is almost 3 times that of the ps4.. where the money actually comes from lol Good point sir :).

          • Bankai

            They lose $60 which is made back immediately with game, camera, controller sales and Plus subscriptions. And where are all these “good games”? Because all the XBO has going for it is Starhawk 2 — I meant Titanfall.

            You’re really bad at trolling, sport.

          • jeremyg85

            Look it up bro, not hard to find. You think sony makes 60 dollars off of any game they sell? even if it is a first party game, it still cost money to make… money they don’t have.

          • DarthDiggler

            @jeremyg85:disqus

            Well Mr. Know it All Yet Cites No Sources — how much do these games cost per unit to “make”?

          • DarthDiggler

            @Bankai

            You people need to educate yourself. What I find most appling is that no one seems to even want to use Google to fact check stuff.

            The PS4 is being sold for $18 profit each unit.

            http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/11/20/the-ps4-costs-381-to-build-only-18-under-retail-price

            There is no $60 loss, a 2 minute Google search could have avoided someone passing off more bad information.

            EDIT: PS3 was sold for a loss, but you didn’t specify PS3.

            Poor fact checking + bad writing = mess of information no one can discern. :)

          • oGMo

            As of 2010, they were losing at most $18/console, down from $37, so you’re exaggerating in any case. This was the 2nd gen PS3, the first “slim” model. As of the final generation PS3, it’s highly unlikely it’s not profitable.

          • jeremyg85

            What am I exaggerating? They are definitely losing money on the ps4, and the ps3 continually sees price cuts so even if they manufacture it for less they are still selling at a loss lol Also as a company they are losing billions..

          • Michael Norris

            Sony makes profit back on one game or camera.MS is losing their ass on that Titanfall bundle.

          • Jordan Jones

            how they are giving away a free titanfall code which means it cost them nothing but the price of paper

          • nougard

            You just can’t get any dumber than this.

          • DarthDiggler

            @nougard:disqus

            A whole new level of stupidity.

          • PCS4-Box U

            Thats… not the way that works, lol.

          • DarthDiggler

            @NotThatGuyagain:disqus

            A whole new level of stupidity.

          • DarthDiggler

            @disqus_RUjgcx6taD:disqus

            So EA is just giving the game to MS for free because they such good pals?

            LOL The ignorance and nativity about the games industry is pretty astounding in this commentary.

          • megablast16

            Titanfall is an EA game not a Microsoft game, is anybody is losing anything it’s them.

          • DarthDiggler

            @megablast16:disqus

            Dude that simply is not true. EA isn’t going to give MS free games because they paid them for exclusivity.

            This exclusivity deal has been a money looser for EA at this point, why would they double down on their losses by providing games to MS for free for their bundles?

            Seriously think about this stuff before you post things like that.

            If anyone is loosing money it is MS because they are the ones who packed the game in with their console. They will owe EA revenues for every Titanfall bundle sold. EA isn’t in the business of giving away free games.

          • Batnut1992

            Dude they have been making money off the PS3 for years now, I mean it took awhile but eventually each console sold did garner profit for Sony. As for PS4, it costs 382 bucks to manufacture each console, that’s 18 bucks and according to analysts, this would usually lead to either a very small profit or a very small loss, however combined with hardware sales from their first-party studios along with subscriptions for PS+ on the rise, it has lead to the Playstation Brand being quite profitable for Sony last quarter.

          • SynKronized901 .

            What proof do you have that supports this?

          • DarthDiggler

            @synkronized901:disqus

            The guy hasn’t provided 1 link or even a though that sounds remotely true, do you really think he is a devote fact checker?

            Dude is just a troll talking out his ass.

          • PCS4-Box U

            He’s a major troll, just ignore. He has no idea what he’s talking about and just makes up whatever he likes and presents it as fact… like i said, just ignore.

          • oGMo

            Yeah doubtless. My hobby is exposing trolls with actual data. :)

          • PCS4-Box U

            Then continue the good fight noble sir!

          • Manoj Varughese

            Yeah right..wait for the next week sales report. The best European turf that was UK for Xbone has seen a 106 percent increase in sales already for PS4!

          • CervantesPR

            PS4 is barely sold at a loss, ps4 cost $385 to make and xbox one is also sold at a loss so i dont know what your talking about, last time i checked, metal gear solid V on PS4 outsold the xbox one version almost 3 to 1 as well, ohh well enjoy titanfall lol i hope it was worth it for 1 game lol not even going to bother picking it up for PC now and excuse me,im going to play some more infamous, best next gen game so far.

            fun fact: sony makes about $3 for every xbox one sold

          • Elem187

            Actually Super Mario 3D World is the top next gen game so far. No other next gen title even comes close to its scores. Infamous is hovering in the 8 out of 10 range, not exactly getting critical acclaim here.

            While Infamous is the best game on PS4, and I like it better than any exclusive on xBone, lets be honest here, SS isn’t creating any new gameplay ideas. It feels exactly like the last one just with prettier graphics, and the novelty of better graphics wears off after 20 minutes. SM3DW stuffs a new or different idea or gameplay mechanic into each level. The sheer creativity is almost on the level of the two galaxy games on Wii.

          • CervantesPR

            Super mario 3D world is not a next gen game, and nintendo games get high scores because the people who review those games are nintendo biased fanboys. Infamous second son has improved its gameplay by atleast 2x fold The same could be said about 3d world, its just mario 3d land with pretier graphics lol

          • stealth20k

            Sorry but your talking idiotic.

          • CervantesPR

            Nintendo reviewers are downright biased nostalgic fanboys, people who don’t like Nintendo games don’t even bother making reviews. you either love Nintendo or you hate Nintendo that’s why Nintendo games get such high scores,

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2R8JElw9yHA
            they look the same

          • DarthDiggler

            jeremyg85

            they lose money on every console sold,

            False, Sony or MS are not taking huge losses on the PS4 and XBONE, if they sell for the full sticker price I believe they both are making a very small profit this time around.

            at a time when they need money more than ever

            Look buddy, things are not rosey with MS either. If MS didn’t have that $2 Billion in revenues coming from Google for patent licensing for Android the Xbox division would be in jeopardy due to a lack of profitability. The fact is many stock holders are not happy that the Consumer Electronics division has that $2 Billion subsidy and would like to see that $2 Billion added to the profits. XBOX is by no means a profit center for MS and when it is compared to their highly successful Windows and Office business the numbers speak for themselves. The only MS stock holders that want to keep XBOX around are the XBOX fans.

            Too bad they don’t have any good games like xbox one

            That is 100% your opinion. You know what is NOT your opinion though? How many games are in development for each platform.

            Development has flocked to the PS4.

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_PlayStation_4_games

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Xbox_One_games

            the xbox attach rate is almost 3 times that of the ps4.

            Can you cite your source on that data? To be honest attach rates this early in the game don’t mean as much as total game sales. There are only about a dozen titles for each system and 90% of them are digital so they don’t even figure in to the attach rate (which is based on physical sales).

            Pretty much any game that has released on both platforms has sold better on the PS4 than the XBONE. Feel free to find evidence to the contrary.

            @oGMo:disqus

            Sony is by no means out of the woods, but the PS4 success is certainly a good sign. They need to get their other divisions profitable and working more in concert with each other. I am still waiting on that “One Sony” vision we heard about years ago.

    • oGMo

      Kinect sortof has “garnered mainstream interest” … just not from gamers. In fact, it and similar technology (e.g. Move, PS Eye, Leap Motion, etc) all have numerous interesting applications for hobbyists, art, motion capture, and pretty much anything not a game.

      But this guy seems to know nothing about games (surprise).

      • Bankai

        I know, that’s what I meant. The Kinect looks fun, but then you try playing a game and you just want to break something.

        • PCS4-Box U

          That thing is so frustrating, Kinect 2.0 doesnt fix the mistake of the first one either which is really dissapointing… Theres still no game out that proves it has a purpose in gaming and the voice controls are still iffy at best.

          • AlwaysRight

            U are a sony fanboy lol. Kinect for xb1 works great if u use it right. But keep on trolling champ.

          • PCS4-Box U

            You have no other argument other than “i’m a sony fanboy”? The fact that you have to say “if u use it correctly” is exactly my point. You also couldn’t seem to think of a game to list that proves me wrong either… I mean, if theres a quality Kinect game out there that really sells the device for you, I’d love to hear what it is and why you think so, otherwise, i think it’s pretty clear who the fanboy troll here is…

          • SynKronized901 .

            Butthurt xbox fanboy, your’re pathetic

          • DarthDiggler

            @Adamsharkan:disqus

            Well this must be a matter of opinion because we can find ample documentation that says Kinect 2.0 still has issues. NFS game was very messy with Voice Controls on and the Head Tracking wasn’t done very well either.

            Issues with pets popping into your view while playing. Issues with some living room configurations.

            Just because it works great for you doesn’t mean it works great for others. Have any more anecdotal evidence to provide?

            Anyone that has a beef with anything XBOX related is some Sony Fanboy Trolling Champ? The funny thing is PCS4-BOX U‘s comment wasn’t really all that scathing and sounds like he has experienced the camera first hand. You immediately accusing him of being a Sony fanboy demonstrates you are the troll here.

          • shinitaru

            Okay, I’ll bite. What do you mean by “if u use it right”? The way I see it, it’s not about whether or not the user is proficient, rather if the developers have a clear idea of how to make those users want to use it in the first place. Same thing with other motion control schemes, and I include the Move and the Wiimote. As far as I can tell, developers have yet to make any motion control games that people want to play past the point where the novelty wears off

        • AlwaysRight

          Hah u don’t even own an xb1, u are a know sony fanboy, kinect works great for ose that have enough of a brain to use it. So pathetic hah u truly are.

          • DarthDiggler

            @Adamsharkan:disqus

            How do you know what consoles he owns? Making assumptions about random people you don’t know so you can score debate points in a discussion about video games is about as pathetic as you can get.

    • DarthDiggler

      @disqus_0UBWeO4eXa:disqus

      Check out some of my other comments here, I don’t want to repeat myself but I really think you are having a knee-jerk reaction here that is devoid of actual critical thinking and doesn’t jive with obvious and observable facts.

  • stealth20k

    I think I agree with Mr. Pachter.

    • Bankai

      Everyone’s shocked.

      • stealth20k

        You seem to have an issue with people who do not believe what you do. You might want to get that checked out

  • Matt Dickinson

    I don’t understand why this guy is listened to or quoted.

    • oGMo

      Is he perfectly wrong? I.e. every prediction false. That would actually be notable!

      If he’s just 50/50 then yeah, he’s pure noise.

  • Gannicus

    Sony needs 1 million sales from this to get back its R+D but see as its going be a $250-350 piece of tech, you gotta wonder if it will sell. They could prolly get it down to $200 if they sell it at cost or make a very very small profit on it

  • RealityCheck2013

    Well if SONY waste to much money on it it could be a bad thing. I would rather SONY spend their PS money on making more brilliant ‘Normal’ PS Exclusives really :P

    • shinitaru

      Sony is a hardware manufacturer. They don’t really even make software, they own studios for that which all have their own operational budget. Money that is invested in R&D on new technologies does not take any away from game development

  • Rickowned

    Well if he says it wont do well then it will be a hit

  • PrinceHeir

    Can’t wait for VR!

  • Batnut1992

    Gui, I like you but dangit it’s spelled Disney!

  • Hussain Naseem

    why doesn’t he realize that morpheus IS part of the marketing for ps4 ?

  • Jimmy DoneGood

    Sony VR will fail like Move and Kinect.

    • Craig Sloan

      Well they did yet now they are both in everyone’s homes who owns a PS4 or X1. Yes the move is inside your DS4 now.

      • Hates bad writers.

        And, retard? That’s like saying a baseball app is successful because it’s available on major platforms. They stuck it in, and it’s useless without a camera anyways.

        • Craig Sloan

          You mean the PS camera that’s sold out most places? You mean the Kinect that most people seem to like now? Face facts people will become used to having them and they will be second nature. Like VR will be one day for many people. Retard? That’s mature.

    • Michael Balchunas

      Not if the software is there to support it though. I’ll buy one instantly if they can get it to work like headphones do (just turn it on and use it for all games).

  • superkarma

    “Pachter continued by explaining that gamers have demonstrated not to be very interested in peripherals with the exception of Kinect”

    That’s all I needed to read to remember how out of touch Pachter is with the industry.

  • http://www.paulogy.com Paul

    Surprise, surprise. Pachter doesn’t like something new he doesn’t understand.
    Nice spelling of Disney, btw.

  • Craig Sloan

    This guy if I remember correctly said that the Wii would fail ( nope haha ) and that last gen PS3/360 would be the last gen of consoles ( nope obviously ) I think he also said a few years ago CoD would start to struggle or people would stop buying it in big numbers. I think he said that like 4 hears ago.

    So basically this VR will be a hit now.

    • superkarma

      Yeah, he’s basically known as the biggest joke in the industry. This latest “prediction” just confirms what we already know about him.

      • benbenkr

        And… ironic how this “joke” in the industry keeps getting paid 6 figures annually because of his “predictions”.

        lol.

        • superkarma

          Which only further proves how his employers are even bigger jokes than he is.

          • DarthDiggler

            @superkarma:disqus

            Where are you guys getting these ideas? Do you really think Pachter is employeed at Wabash becuse they think he is a cool guy and he makes great jokes at the water cooler? OR do you think his is handsomely paid because clients value the information he brings?

            Sometimes gamers say things that are just obviously wrong based on observable facts.

            The observable fact here is Michael has been at the same company for years. That doesn’t happen unless you deliver a profit. You don’t deliver a profit as an analyst by providing shoddy reports.

            Can’t anyone separate what a person says from the person? I get it — all gamers at one time have had a reason to love or hate Pachter, but can’t we be sophisticated enough to understand the guy is just doing his job? Do we have to tarnish his reputation because we just happen to not agree with the person?

            The way people speak in gaming article comments is completely devoid of any invitation for debate. It’s kind of sickening just how little intellectual discourse happens here. At one time gamers used to be considered smarter than the average bear. Those days seem long behind us and now there seems to be a certain conformity that is acceptable and if you step too far outside of those ideas you are scorned and ridiculed as a PR Rep for whomever the topic of discussion is about.

          • superkarma

            It’s not about agreeing or disagreeing with him. It’s about him making outlandish predictions that never come to fruition. Understandably, a prediction isn’t meant to come off as fact. They are, however, supposed to at least make sense and have some sort of history backing it up. That said, his predictions almost never come true…and at the same time, he makes himself appear foolish with the things he says and/or predicts.

            His reputation has long been tarnished. Just because he’s paid well (not 6 figures, though) doesn’t automatically give him credibility or respect. He has to earn those.

          • DarthDiggler

            superkarma

            That said, his predictions almost never come true…and at the same time, he makes himself appear foolish with the things he says and/or predicts.

            The information that he banters on websites is only a fraction of what he does professionally. He isn’t paid to give quotes to bloggers.

            Also people seem to have a problem with remembering what this guy said and what he has predicted. Look over some of my other replies and you will see I have gone over a few of these predictions and so far he wasn’t completely wrong about many of them.

            Feel free to give me examples of where Michael has been way off base. The only problem with this is if you don’t like they guy you aren’t exactly the best person to give him credit when he is correct.

            His reputation has long been tarnished.

            Ask his clients about his reputation, I bet you get a MUCH different story. Those are the people who are likely happy to pay him for his reports and analysis.; If they were not Michael Prachter would not be a name we knew today. The only reason this guy is a name to gamers is because he has done well by his clients and his analysis.

            Lets not mistake an Analyst for a Soothsayer either. Do you really think Michael really cares about what gamers think about him? :)

            Also, he does more than just act as a analyst for the gaming industry. Given his track record, he would not continue to be employed by Wedbush if that’s all he did. His job description and position have him doing much more than the gaming/console industry.

            Have you ever seen any of his reports that his clients have?

            NO you have not. So you do not know what you are talking about.

            He does Analysis for more than just gaming I believe electronics is the more general category he works in.

            The fact is if Michael Prachter was a poor analyst he would have never been a name known to us. Wabash isn’t going to keep a guy employed because he has a little visibility on some Video Game Websites most of which they could buy out 100 times over if they wanted to.

            None of this jives with obvious and observable facts my friend. Prachter is still gainfully employed at Wedbush so the assumption should be that he does well by Webdush and generates revenues via the value of his skills and talents.

            If he was really that terrible at his job, how does he manage to keep it? That is the obvious and observable fact that people seem to gloss over when discussing this guy.

        • ImonadrugcalledCharlieSheen

          He doesn’t make a six figure salary, he even said that himself. And regradless of what he makes working for a securities company, that doesnt mean he knows jack sh!t about the game indisutry, which he clearly doesnt.

          • DarthDiggler

            @imonadrugcalledcharliesheen:disqus

            He made over $100,000 per year in 1998. Honestly given his position I would find it hard to believe if he wasn’t paid at least $100,000 per year.

            Where did he say he made less than $100K per year?

        • DarthDiggler

          @benbenkr:disqus

          The major part of his job is not supplying quotes to Blogs and Websites. This guy is an analyst and researcher he is creating reports for people who will pay handsomely for them and the information in those reports is privileged and proprietary. So unless you are one of his clients you can’t really say this guy is wrong more than right. Considering that he is still gainfully employed I would think that he is right more than he is wrong. You can’t sell analysis if you are always producing reports that have shoddy info.

          Gamers seem to have no problems creating assumptions and presumptions as long as it leads to a good Straw Man. :)

    • ImonadrugcalledCharlieSheen

      He’s been wrong so many times its ridiculous, he’s an idiot and should be ignored. Still waiting on the Wii HD he predicted years ago. LOL

      • DarthDiggler

        @imonadrugcalledcharliesheen:disqus

        It’s called Wii U, came out 2 years ago now?

        This guy is paid to make predictions about the industry all the time. The stuff that we are privy too is likely only a small amount of his analysis.
        This guy really isn’t as inaccurate as people like to make him out to be. See my other post where someone pointed out 3 things he was supposedly wrong about.

        You can dislike Pachter because he is divisive, but if you just saying the guy is wrong on his analysis and only providing a handful of examples, that isn’t really a smoking gun, this guy likely makes daily predictions and analysis that we are never privy to. Much of the information he gets is likely for his clients. The stuff that gets published isn’t the kind of info he makes his bread and butter on. It’s not like he is sitting in an office waiting for people to call him so he can predict the future of gaming. He is likely producing reports that showcase trends in the industry to help publishers and others get a feel on where they should be investing their revenues.

        If you think that Michael is just some guy kindly giving quotes to the bloggers I don’t think you understand what he does.

    • kryteris

      Adding motion controllers to near identical g-cube hardware was stupid and after 3 years, it was a failure.

      • DarthDiggler

        @kryteris:disqus

        Careful you are deviating from the ignorant video gamers narrative. You may get shouted down with an independent opinion like this. :)

    • Steven Solidarios

      Basically he’s the dyslexia of news reporting.

    • DarthDiggler

      @insloanwetrust:disqus
      I know peeps like to rag this guy but he wouldn’t be paid as an analyst if he wasn’t right about things more often than not. The big beef I have with this statement is he is saying he is not sure if there is enough room in the market for 2 players in the VR headset space, but fails to mention that neither product will directly compete with each other (Occulus Rift is PC only Project Morpheus is PS4 Only).

      Given how the sales slowed for the Wii and near non-existent for Wii U i think Michael wasn’t completely incorrect but his analysis was a tad off.

      The last generation was the last generation of custom consoles. PS4 and XBONE largely use “off the shelf” parts. Both predecessors had custom CPUs. The PS2 was custom everything as well as the PS1. This showcases that much of the production of hardware has been outsourced. Out of necessity, Sony nor MS could afford to spend as much on R&D for the PS4 and XBONE as they did historically.

      I don’t recall Michael saying that COD was doomed to fail and not generate revenues for Activision. The fact is you can’t stay #1 forever, and there is already evidence that COD is slipping in sales numbers.

      Prachter can be divisive that doesn’t mean he is wrong all the time.

  • Manoj Varughese

    I really do believe that the shot from Sony could be worth it. The VR should definitely be introduced pretty much like how Kinect is being forced.

  • ImonadrugcalledCharlieSheen

    “explaining that gamers have demonstrated not to be very interested in peripherals with the exception of Kinect,”

    That’s a joke right, please tell me that’s a joke, people couldn’t have cared less about kinect, kinect is garbage and people didn’t want it, now with kinect 2.0 you cant look at a forced packed in peripheral and call it successful or say people have interest in it when people have no choice, it comes in the box, and they still dont want it.

    • Hates bad writers.

      It is garbage, can’t disagree, but it clearly sold well. You’re an idiot if you can’t see that. and If you really want to push buttons and say it didn’t, it sold a shit load more than the Move ever did.

      • superkarma

        One could argue, it sold relatively poorly when the 360’s install base is factored in. Granted, the original Kinect did win quite a few awards and did sell pretty damn quickly.

        With that said, they were marketing to an install base of about 76 million or so at the time (which is now over 80 million)…and only 24 million units were shipped by the beginning of last year. Mind you, that’s only shipped units…not sold. When you factor that in, I wouldn’t call it a success. I’d call it a fad that died rather quickly. Most Xbox fanboys would even agree that the most use they got out of the Kinect was using it for Netflix or the likes.

        Now, that’s not to say the Move did any better. Of course it didn’t. The move was an even bigger failure, as we all know. Even so, to consider the Kinect a success would be silly.

      • PCS4-Box U

        it was definately the “hot” item for that 1 year… the novelty wears thin quickly though. MS marketing did extrememly well selling the thing, it just never lived up to it’s promise imo and in that sense, I think its a fail.

  • vicky

    I really don’t understand this guy’s reputation. He is wrong 90% of the time, except when it something obvious that the average teenager could answer.

    VR is the future. Oculus and sony will begin the trend and set the standards and development framework, Then the korean firms like samsung and LG will step into and mass produce the hardware. Sony, toshiba, panasonic etc and other japanese firms lead the way with their LCD and plasma HD TVs in the early 2000s, then again with bluray and 3D.

    Then samsung and LG entered the market later, manufacturing things cheaper and therefore now the technology is ubiquitous. Nobody uses a CRT anymore.

  • CervantesPR

    i just dont know why people care so much about what this insignificant michael pachter guy says. hes literally a nobody, who is he? what has he done for gaming? why do people report on his statements? i just dont know dont know why anyone cares enough to give this guy media exposure.

    • superkarma

      He’s a joke, but sadly, he’s the “mainstream” face when it comes to console analysts. That’s why everyone quotes him and he gets the headlines, unfortunately. I say keep it coming, because it only further proves him foolish each time his laughable predictions come up false.

  • Hates bad writers.

    Well to be honest, it will flop. The Move, and Kinect were knee jerks to the Nintendo Wii, both sucked cash, and blew hard. This is Sony’s knee jerk to the Oculus, Microsoft will have one eventually as well. The problem? only the Oculus team is passionate about it, Microsoft, and Sony will just be trying to get their foot in the door with a shitty product for a bigger chunk of sales. Peripherals suck ass, people should know this by now. Now if they made both work as TV screens for every facet of the console, and normal games, it might work out, but it won’t do that.

    Color me not excited, and every fanboy jumping on this is a moron. The Kinect sucked, the Move suck, and now the Morpheus is going to suck. We don’t have a name for the Microsoft knee jerk yet, but it’s going to suck, and it’ll suck in tandem with the Kinect, just like Morpheus with the Move. How do people fall for this shit every generation? One group does it well, or at least with good intentions, the others copy, and don’t make a product worth 5 of your minutes.

    And to all the retards claiming Pachter has made mistakes, yes, thank you for pointing out the obvious, but that’s what he does. He spews shit and gets paid, most of the time he spews out really obvious shit, at which point you call him on that for never saying anything beyond the obvious shit. So what is it? Is he always wrong, or is he always obvious? Maybe he’s wrong because he’s human, and he points out the obvious shit so he can have a job. You react to him like his opinion matters. A couple people use him for stock advice, that’s it. But once again, here he is with the obvious. PS4 will sell like candy coated crack, the Morpheus will be yet another money pit with the Move.

    • superkarma

      I stopped reading your pointless wall of text when you said this is Sony’s answer to Oculus. After reading that, it was obvious you don’t know what you’re talking about.

      How could this be Sony’s “knee jerk” to the Oculus…when Sony started development on it 2 years before the Oculus was even invented?

      Move along, folks. Nothing to see here.

    • Jecht_Sin

      Who told you it won’t work as a tv screen? That’s the simplest of the features to implement. Especially for 3D movies. And guess what? One would even save the money for the 3D glasses.

  • megablast16

    Why do sites keep quoting this guy as though it’s gospel, he’s been wrong so many times it’s ridiculous. I remember quite a while back he said Microsoft had already won the next gen battle before any specs had even been revealed, let alone the actual consoles, now he says the PS4 will be a wild success.

  • Jecht_Sin

    Ok, so if Oculus Rift sells 1 million it’s a great success, but if Morpheus sells the same it’s a flop? It would be about $300 million in revenues in both cases, not to mention all the patents involved in this new technology R&D. As usual Pacther missed the opportunity to shut up.

  • Virdin Barzey

    So lets see, according to most of you Pachter is the biggest joke and always wrong yet he works for one of the biggest firms that continues pay him very well for his predictions and he’s the only one I know of that giving this type of input in the whole gaming community.

    Yup, you guys are right. He doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Forgot this is DualShockers.

    • Somebodyissilent

      Yes because he is never wrong. Get out Pachter. I know it’s you.

      • Virdin Barzey

        Yup another Dualshocker genius.

  • AlwaysRight

    VR for Sony is a horrible idea, it is a gimmicky niche product and never will be mainstream any time soon, adding the fact that devs will barely support it because it won’t sell well, and Sony’s notorious reputation for not supporting their peripherals! it will flop and big.

  • http://www.dnaustrem.com/ DNA

    I don’t know why people listen to him…. maybe he had intelligent things to share a long time ago and gained a small following which then gave him cred but lately he keeps missing the mark with tremendous success.

    Dementia is a serious matter, For his sake, I hope he gets to his doctor.

  • Trioptical

    Probably why Sony themselves aren’t sure whether or not they’ll even launch Project Morpheus at retail.
    The issue of content though? PlayStation’s in a great position to actually do something about that. They don’t have to wait for content like Occulus, they can just make it themselves.

  • Sobekflakmonkey

    I have to be honest, I somewhat agree with what Pachter said about the morpheus and oculus, obviously gamers are gonna buy into morpheus if they have the money its the same as how pc gamers will obviously buy into oculus, but that market isn’t actually that big, the percentage of people who buy and play games that are actually gonna spend money on a VR headset isn’t gonna be that big.

    People have to remember that we as legitimate gamers only really make up a small percentage of the people who own consoles, the rest are casuals that probably wont see much value in a VR headset..not to mention the amount of games that will fully support it, Third person games won’t really work to be honest, the full VR effect wouldn’t exactly be there, it would just be similar to playing on a 3d tv, so you can count those games out, so the majority is probably just gonna be first person games, and how many first person games do you think will actually support VR?

    There’s no reason to get all upset over what pachter said, they are all reasonable concerns to have with VR, not to mention I haven’t read a single comment on here proving why he’s wrong about this, I think everyone should have the same concerns.

  • Rambo Deochenta

    movies,personal viewer,vita playable on it, play non vr games!!! at the Price of 299 and if its neat?? it will be great!

  • DarthDiggler

    I think it’s a bad idea for multiple participants to chase it, and I think it’s a really bad idea for Sony. I have no problem with the Oculus Rift, that they’re trying it, because they’re a startup and that’s a very small market and if they dominate it that’s great, but if it’s a small market and there are multiple players, it’s gonna be hard for anybody to make money.

    Pachter has his fingers of the pulse of the industry but sometimes he says some dumb shit.

    Oculus Rift isn’t going to be available for PS4 as far as I know. Project Morpheus isn’t going to be available for PC as far as I know.

    They aren’t competing at all so there is no marketplace cannibalization here.

  • John Nemesh

    Yes, it’s going to be a total flop, right? That’s why an unknown company had one of the most successful Kickstarter campaigns ever, right? Or why they sell out on a regular basis. Yeah, Sony is just “shooting in the dark” with this, right? Its not like they dont have DECADES of experience in the field or anything. Pacter is a fool.

  • Lol

    Third millionth time lucky, right?

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