Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter spoke at DICE Europe last week, and he had some really interesting things to say on this console generation.
Pachter thinks that console sales won’t get any bigger, and that they won’t be able to exceed the last cycle.
“The console installed base is as big as it’s ever going to get, [this] generation is not going to be bigger than the last generation. We’re going to be about the same.
“The Wii U is going to sell 20 million units compared to 100 million for the Wii. The PlayStation 4 is going to sell 120 million or 130 million – that’s great. The Xbox One will sell 100 million to 110 million – that’s great. Add it all together and it’s 260 million units, maybe, and the last cycle was 270 million.”
He continued to explain further why this cycle will be the last, and that gamers won’t even need a console to play games in the future in his opinion.
“This is the last real console cycle, I don’t mean that Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo will go bankrupt and shut down – they will not. Each of them will make another console, some people will buy them, and the next console cycle will be to this console cycle what the 3DS is to the DS. The 3DS is selling about 15 million units a year, the DS had five consecutive years where it sold more than 26 million. So about half as big.
“So when I say that this console cycle is the last console cycle, the reason is that console games shouldn’t require a console. And I’m not talking about the cloud.”
He said that all you need to play a game is a CPU, a GPU, storage, a controller, and a display. These things will be available in a much smaller size than current consoles, and with technology progressing at this pace, we will be able “to have a CPU/GPU in your house that is connected to your television.”