NPD Analyst: Nintendo Switch Might Take Over 40% Market Share if Pokémon Releases Next Year

NPD Analyst Mat Piscatella talks about his positive outlook for the Switch, especially of the new Pokémon teased by Nintendo comes next year.

November 25, 2017

The Nintendo Switch is certainly doing very well, and NPD Analyst Mat Piscatella expects it to be very successful next year as well, especially if Nintendo manages to launch the new Pokémon game that Nintendo teased earlier this year.

Piscatella gave his insight on the Resetera forum mentioning that the Switch is “on pace to exceed Wii by 20%+ over the first 10 months of sales.”  On top of that, he explained that from a demographic and usage point of view, the Switch is nothing like the Wii, and it’s much more a “core gamer” console than anything Nintendo has released since the GameCube.

Since it’s a hybrid console, there is also the possibility of selling multiple units per household, “making upside potential bigger than the Wii.”

Piscatella also mentioned that the release of Pokémon next year could propel the console not only beyond the Wii’s pace, but also to capturing over 40% of the market share of the hardware sold next year.

“If Pokemon comes next year I can easily see Switch outpacing Wii and taking 40+ share of the hardware market next year.

But it does depend on if Pokemon is next year or not.”

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Piscatella also responded to the argument that the Wii was almost impossible to find in the United States for a long time.

“Launch year sales are almost always supply constrained. We don’t know what could have sold for Wii or Switch in the launch period because both are supply constrained.

But sales are sales, and stats are stats.”

Interestingly, he also explained that while the Wii was one of the hottest items on the planet for a while, it also had a very sharp and fast downswing, so even if the Switch might fall behind the older console’s pace after a while, it could still catch up again with it later.

For those unfamiliar with the NPD, it’s considered one of the most reliable sources for video game sales statistics in the United States, and their metrics are normally used by the hardware manufacturers themselves for their communication.

Piscatella isn’t the only one with a very positive outlook for the Switch, as GameStop executives expressed similar feelings in their latest investor conference call. Yesterday, Piscatella also talked about his predictions for sales in the month of November.

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Giuseppe Nelva

Hailing from sunny (not as much as people think) Italy and long standing gamer since the age of Mattel Intellivision and Sinclair ZX Spectrum. Definitely a multi-platform gamer, he still holds the old dear PC nearest to his heart, while not disregarding any console on the market. RPGs (of any nationality) and MMORPGs are his daily bread, but he enjoys almost every other genre, prominently racing simulators, action and sandbox games. He is also one of the few surviving fans of the flight simulator genre on Earth.

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